タイトル：続き（その４）My research made no headway, and I'm at last having my back against the wall...
hmm... this assignment is really tough...
hmm... giving up is easy, I'll give it another try tomorrow!
リサーチに進展無しで、とうとう崖っぷちだ…うーん…今回の課題は結構きついな…うーん…あきらめるのは簡単だ。明日もう１回頑張るか！
Und hinter zu meiner Analyse...そして分析に戻って…（独語）
The posts are set! 
JRA announced the post positions of the 18 colts today!
枠順が決定した！
写真：ＪＲＡがきょう１８頭の馬番を発表した！
B
| PP | Horse Name
| SA
| W
| Jockey
| Trainer
|
| １ | １ | Super Hornet(JPN) | C3
| 57.0 | Y Kawada
| Y Yahagi
|
| ２ | Meisho Samson(JPN) | C3 | 57.0 | M Ishibashi | T Setoguchi
|
| ２ | ３ | Logic(JPN)
| C3 | 57.0 | H Miyuki
| K Hashiguchi
|
| ４ | Maruka Schenk(JPN) | C3 | 57.0 | Y Fukunaga
| T Setoguchi |
| ３ | ５ | Toho Alan(JPN)
| C3 | 57.0 | S Fujita
| H Fujiwara
|
| ６ | Admire Main(JPN)
| C3 | 57.0 | Y Shibata
| M Hashida
|
| ４ | ７ | Fusaichi Richard(JPN)
| C3 | 57.0 | G Boss
| K Matsuda
|
| ８ | Passing Mark(JPN)
| C3 | 57.0 | H Kitamura
| H Asami
|
| ５ | ９ | Sakura Mega Wonder(JPN) | C3 | 57.0 | H Uchida
| Y Tomomichi
|
| １０ | Admire Moon(JPN) | C3 | 57.0 | Y Take
| H Matsuda
|
| ６ | １１ | Victory Run(JPN)
| C3 | 57.0 | K Ando
| K Tadokoro
|
| １２ | Aperitif(JPN) | C3 | 57.0 | R Wada
| N Tsubo
|
| ７ | １３ | Top of Tsuyoshi(JPN)
| C3 | 57.0 | K Ikezoe
| A Tsurudome
|
| １４ | Jalisco Light(USA) | C3 | 57.0 | N Yokoyama
| K Fujisawa
|
| １５ | Dream Passport(JPN) | C3 | 57.0 | H Shii
| H Matsuda
|
| ８ | １６ | Niagara(JPN) | C3 | 57.0 | F Komaki
| Yasuo Ikee
|
| １７ | Fusaichi Junk(JPN) | C3 | 57.0 | Y Iwata
| Yasutoshi Ikee
|
| １８ | Eishin Tenryu(JPN)
| C3 | 57.0 | M Ebina
| M Sakaguchi
|
(B=Bracket Number, P=Post Number, SA=Sex and Age, W=Weight)
（表の和訳は略：Ｂは枠番、Ｐは馬番、ＳＡは性別と年齢、Ｗは斤量）
Let's see...
Many horses going in the front are in the inside. Perhaps there's
no disadvantages for any of them. Now it's up to the
weather.
JMA is saying there's a
60% of rain both on Saturday and Sunday.
Hmm...BUT... I better start narrowing now.
Who will the winner be? Logic seemed to have trained well this morning. But in the past, the only
NHK Mile Cup winner winning the
Derby,
King Kamehameha won the race being the most favorite. Looking at the evaluations of the papers, he'll probably be around the 10th favorite... hmm...
let's let him go! Now it's time to look back... What kind of
scenario will fit this year's race?
Since 1998's
Special Week, the most favorite to the third favorite have captured the crown. Since 2001's
Jungle Pocket the most favorite have all won.
さて見てみよう…
前に行く馬の多くは内だ。不利は無さそうだね。あとは天気次第だ。気象庁は土曜と日曜それぞれが６０％の確率で雨だと言っている。うーん…。
でも…今から絞らないとな。どれが勝つんだ？
ロジックは今朝の調教が良かったようだ。でも過去にダービーを勝ったＮＨＫマイルカップ勝馬のキングカメハメハは１番人気で勝った。新聞の評価を見てると、１０番人気ぐらいになりそうだ…うーん…いらないよね！
さてあとは過去を振り返ろう…今年はどのようなシナリオが合うのだろう？
１９９８年のスペシャルウィーク以降、１番人気から３番人気が優勝している。そして２００１年のジャングルポケット以降、１番人気が全部勝っている。(Scenario No. 1)But 1997's
Sunny Brian's position is fairly close to this year's picture. The most favorite
Mejiro Bright being the most favorite at the
Satsuki Sho finished 4th and so has
Admire Moon this year.
Mejiro Bright, a colt that comes from behind like
Admire Moon was the most favorite in the
Derby too, but ended up 3rd.
Admire Moon could be around the second favorite this time. And
Sunny Brian was the eleventh favorite in the
Satsuki Sho and the sixth favorite in the
Derby, but won both by running in front mostly throughout the race.
Meisho Samson was the sixth favorite at the
Satsuki Sho and could well be around the third favorite this time.
hmm...（シナリオ１）
でも１９９７年のサニーブライアンの位置づけが今年の勢力図にかなり近い。皐月賞１番人気のメジロブライトが４着に終わり、今年のアドマイヤムーンも同じだ。アドマイヤムーンのように後ろから追い上げるメジロブライトはダービーでも１番人気になったが、３着に終わった。そしてサニーブライアンは皐月賞で１１番人気でダービーでは６番人気。でも両方をほとんどレース中、先行して勝った。メイショウサムソンは皐月賞で６番人気で今回は３番人気ぐらいにはなりそうだ。ふむむ…。(Scenario No. 2)But the second favorite
Admire Vega won the
Derby two years later.
Admire Vega, a horse that comes from way behind. like
Admire Moon was also the most favorite in the
Satsuki Sho, but finished 6th. In that year,
Narita Top Road, being the second favorite in the
Satsuki Sho finished 3rd and became the most favorite in the
Derby, but finished as the runner-up. This year,
Fusaichi Junk, who was the second favorite and finished 3rd in the
Satsuki Sho like
Narita Top Road is probably going to be the most favorite this time.
hmm...（シナリオ２）
でも２番人気のアドマイヤベガが２年後のダービーを勝った。アドマイヤベガはかなり後ろから追い上げる馬で、アドマイヤムーンのように皐月賞で１番人気なって、６着に終わった。その年、ナリタトップロードが皐月賞２番人気で３着に入り、そしてダービーで１番人気になったが、２着に終わった。今年、フサイチジャンクが皐月賞２番人気で３着。ナリタトップロードのように今回１番人気になりそうだ。ふむむ…。
(Scenario No. 3)But again... The second favorite at the
Satsuki Sho and finishing 3rd was
Jungle Pocket in 2001, but captured the
Derby being the most favorite.
(In 2001, Agnes Tachyon was the overwhelming colt in the Satsuki Sho, but retired before the Derby)
（シナリオ３）でも待てよ…２００１年に皐月賞２番人気で３着に終わったジャングルポケットは１番人気になってダービーを勝ったな。（２００１年はアグネスタキオンが皐月賞で圧倒的な馬だったが、ダービー前にリタイヤした）
How about miracles!?ミラクルはどうだ！？
(Scenario No. 4)In 2YK,
Agnes Flight captured the
Derby after sliding in the list by winning the
Kyoto Shimbun Cup winning over the most favorite
Air Shakur by a nose.
Toho Alan could be a contender, but
Agnes Flight was the third favorite and
Toho Alan will be no where near to the top favorites.
（シナリオ４）
２０００年にアグネスフライトが京都新聞杯を勝って出馬表に滑り込んで、１番人気のエアシャカールを鼻差負かしてダービーを獲った。トーホーアランは候補になるが、アグネスフライトは３番人気だった。トーホーアランは人気サイドになりそうにない。(Scenario No. 5)My favorite Derby horse,
Tanino Gimlet became king in 2002 after running both in the
Satsuki Sho and
NHK Mile Cup (finishing 3rd in both). My favorite
Fusaichi Richard running both the
Satsuki Sho and
NHK Mile Cup (finishing 5th and 6th respectively) will not be among the favorites either.
（シナリオ５）
一番の贔屓のダービー馬、タニノギムレットは２００２年、皐月賞とＮＨＫマイルカップの両方を走ったあと（両方とも３着）王者になった。贔屓のフサイチリシャールは皐月賞とＮＨＫマイルカップの両方を走った（それぞれ５着と６着）が、これまた人気サイドになりそうに無い。...but I'd love to see miracles!! …でもミラクルはぜひ見たいな！！
I've already cut
Meisho Samson and
Toho Alan so let's narrow it down to
scenarios 2, 3, 5!すでにメイショウサムソンとトーホーアランは切ってるから、シナリオ２、３、５に絞ろう！
3 colts left...
Fusaichi Junk, Admire Moon, Fusaichi Richard３頭残留…
フサイチジャンク、アドマイヤムーン、フサイチリシャール
